Umongameli waseMelika uJoe Biden usanda kuhambela iNorth American International Auto Show eDetroit.UBiden, ozibiza “ngezimoto”, ubhale kuTwitter wathi, “Namuhla ngivakashele iDetroit Auto Show ngabona izimoto zikagesi ngamehlo ami, futhi lezi zimoto zikagesi zinginika izizathu eziningi zokuba nethemba ngekusasa lethu.” Kepha ngokuphoxayo, uBiden ngithathe isithombe sami nemoto kaphethiloli - imoto yiChevrolet Corvette ka-2023 (amapharamitha | uphenyo) Z06.
Yize lokhu kuhehe ukugconwa kwabasebenzisi be-inthanethi kanye ne-Republican Party, kufanele kushiwo ukuthi selokhu uBiden athatha izintambo, izinqubomgomo zokwesekwa zaseMelika ezihlobene nezimoto zamandla amasha bezilokhu zenza izinto ezintsha.U-Biden uthembise embukisweni wezimoto iDetroit ukuthi uzohlinzeka amashumi ezigidigidi zamadola emalimboleko, ukukhiqiza kanye nekhefu lentela yabathengi kanye nezibonelelo ukuze kusheshiswe uguquko olusuka ezimotweni zenjini evuthayo yangaphakathi ziye zokuhlanza izimoto zikagesi.
Ngaso leso sikhathi, waphinde wagqamisa ezinye izimpumelelo zomthetho zakamuva, enye yazo okuwuMthetho Wokuncishiswa Kokwehla Kwamanani Emali, othi i-United States ngeke inikeze uxhaso lwezimoto zamandla ezintsha zamaphakethe amabhethri nezinto zokusetshenziswa ezisetshenziswa emazweni abucayi.
Eqinisweni, uBiden wakhomba umunwe kumabhethri kagesi ngonyaka odlule: “I-China ikhiqiza u-80% wamabhethri kagesi omhlaba. Akwenziwa eChina kuphela, kodwa futhi enziwa eJalimane naseMexico, bese ithunyelwa emhlabeni wonke. Ngokubona ukuthi i-China isembonini yebhethri Ngokukhula kweketango, i-Biden yasungula i-FLAG, “I-China ayikwazi ukuwina! Ngoba ngeke sibavumele bawine.”
Ngaphansi kokuphathwa kweBiden, imakethe yezimoto zikagesi yaseMelika kulindeleke ukuthi ivulwe ngempumelelo njengeChina ne-Europe.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, i-United States, efuna ukuba "nobudlelwane obuncane" neChina, iphikelela ekulawuleni lonke uchungechunge lwemboni yezimoto zamandla amasha.
■Ingabe imboni yezimoto zikagesi "ingakwazi ukuhlukanisa" ngempela?
UBiden usanda kusayina “uMthetho Wokwehliswa Kokwehla kwamandla emali”, onomthelela omkhulu ezinkampanini zaseShayina ngokubeka imingcele yamabhethri anamandla oxhaso lwezimoto zamandla ahlanzekile, okubuye kuthathwe imboni “njengokunqamula” imboni yezimoto zikagesi yaseMelika. .
Lo mthethosivivinywa uhlongoza ukuqhubeka nokuhlinzeka ngesikweletu sentela esingu-$7,500 sezimoto ezintsha, kususwe isixhaso sezimoto ezingu-200,000 ezinkampanini zezimoto, kodwa kwengezwe imfuneko ethi “Made in America”.Okusho ukuthi, izimoto kufanele ziqoqwe e-United States, ingxenye enkulu yezingxenye zebhethri zamandla zikhiqizwa eNyakatho Melika, futhi ingxenye enkulu yezinto ezibonakalayo ezibalulekile zamaminerali zikhiqizwa e-United States noma ngabalingani bokuhweba bamahhala base-US, kanye nebhethri lamandla. izingxenye kanye nezinto ezibalulekile zamaminerali akumele zivele ezinkampanini zangaphandle ezizwelayo.
UCarla Bailo, umongameli weCentre for Automotive Research (CAR), wathi ngemigomo ekulo mthethosivivinywa: “Ngezinga esintula ngalo izinto okwamanje, angicabangi ukuthi ukhona umkhiqizo namuhla ohlangabezana nalelo zinga.”
Lokhu akulona iqiniso.Ngenxa yemikhawulo yezinsiza zayo kanye nokuvikelwa kwemvelo, ukuthuthukiswa nokucutshungulwa kwezinto ezingavuthiwe zebhethri e-United States kuhamba kancane.
Phakathi kwezinto zokusetshenziswa zamabhethri kagesi, ezibaluleke kakhulu i-nickel, i-cobalt, ne-lithium.Izinsiza ze-lithium zomhlaba zisakazwa ikakhulukazi "kunxantathu we-lithium" waseNingizimu Melika, okuyi-Argentina, Chile neBolivia; izinsiza ze-nickel zigxile kakhulu e-Indonesia nasePhilippines; izinsiza ze-cobalt zisatshalaliswa kakhulu emazweni afana neCongo (DRC) e-Afrika.Iketanga lemboni yokucubungula ibhethri lamandla ligxile e-China, Japan naseNingizimu Korea.
”Lo mthethosivivinywa uzogqugquzela izinkampani zezimoto ezintsha ukuthi zibheke amathuba engeziwe okuthola impahla evela e-United States noma emazweni anezivumelwano zohwebo lwamahhala ne-United States, ngaleyo ndlela kuthinte uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla yamabhethri emhlabeni jikelele. Ukudluliswa kwe-supply chain kungase kwenyuse izindleko zezinto zebhethri.” I-Fitch Ratings eNyakatho Melika uStephen Brown, umqondisi omkhulu wezilinganiso zebhizinisi, waphawula.
UJohn Bozzella, umongameli we-American Automobile Innovation Alliance, washo ngokungananazi ukuthi cishe u-70% wezimoto zikagesi ezingu-72 nama-plug-in hybrids okumanje asemakethe yaseMelika ngeke zisafaneleka.Ngemuva komhla ka-Janawari 1, 2023, ingxenye encane engu-40% yezinto zokusetshenziswa kanye no-50% wezingxenye zebhethri kuzosetshenziswa, futhi ayikho imodeli ezofaneleka ukuthola uxhaso olugcwele.Lokhu kuzothinta umgomo wase-US wokufinyelela ku-40% -50% wokuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi ngo-2030.
U-Li Qian, unobhala webhodi labaqondisi be-BYD, naye uphendule “ekunqanyulweni” kwezimoto zikagesi e-United States.Uthe kumbuthano wabangani be-WeChat: Angiyiboni, inganqanyulwa kanjani imboni yezimoto zikagesi?Embonini yezimoto zikagesi, i-United States isencane futhi ithembele ekwandiseni uxhaso ukuze iwusekele, kuyilapho i-China isishintshe ngokuphelele ekubeni iqhutshwa inqubomgomo yaya emakethe.
Eqinisweni, akhona kakade amazwe asethathe isinyathelo ngaphambi kwethu futhi aphikisana ne-United States.Ngokusho kwemibiko yabezindaba yaseNingizimu Korea, ngemva kokuba i-United States isanda kukhipha "Umthetho Wokunciphisa I-Inflation", uhulumeni waseNingizimu Korea akazange avume inkampani yaseNingizimu Korea ye-L & F, ekhiqiza izinto zebhethri yemoto kagesi, ukwakha imboni e-United States.
Isizathu esinikezwe uMnyango Wezimboni wase-Korea ukuthi izinto zokwakha, izinqubo kanye nobuchwepheshe bokukhiqiza obuhlobene namabhethri aphinde ashajwe ubuchwepheshe obusezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu obunquma isisekelo sokuncintisana komkhakha wamabhethri.Uma lobu buchwepheshe bugeleza phesheya kwezilwandle, buzoba nomthelela omubi embonini yaseNingizimu Korea kanye nokuphepha kwezwe.
Ngokombono ongokoqobo, ngisho noma amabhethri e-Chinese engasetshenziswa, i-United States kusazodingeka ithembele kubahlinzeki bebhethri base-Korea esikhathini esifushane. Phakathi kwazo, iFord ne-SKI ziboshwe ngokujulile futhi zihlela ukwakha amafekthri amakhulu amathathu anesamba esingu-130GWh; I-GM izokwakha ibhizinisi elihlanganyelwe ne-LG New Energy. ; I-Stellantis, i-LG New Energy kanye ne-Samsung SDI zinamabhethri amandla esakhiwo.
"Inkundla yemoto kagesi i-Universal isebenzisa ibhethri le-LG lamandla amasha"
Nakuba izinqubomgomo ezintsha ezihlobene nemoto yamandla "kuMthetho Wokwehliswa Kokwehla kwamandla emali" zinamandla amancane kunokulindeleke emakethe, inqubomgomo ayibeki umkhawulo ongaphezulu esikalini sezibonelelo futhi ihlanganisa ngokusobala iminyaka eyishumi ezayo, ikakhulukazi isikhathi eside.
Kodwa-ke, i-Auto Innovation Alliance, umfelandawonye omkhulu wenkampani yezimoto yaseMelika, ikholelwa ukuthi ngokwalo mthethosivivinywa, uma izinkampani zezimoto zaseMelika zifuna ukuthola uxhaso oluyingxenye, kuzothatha okungenani iminyaka emine ukulungisa uxhaso. Uma befuna ukuhlangabezana ngokugcwele nezingqinamba ezimbili zezinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nokukhiqizwa kwengxenye, Ukuze baxhaswe ngokugcwele, kuzodingeka ulinde kuze kube okungenani u-2027 noma u-2028.
Kuhle ukusho ukuthi okwamanje, u-Tesla kanye no-GM abasajabuleli uxhaso lwama-yuan angu-7,500 ngebhayisikili, kodwa futhi bangazuza uma behlangabezana nezidingo zomxhaso kamuva.U-Tesla umemezele ukuthi umisa izinhlelo zokukhiqiza amabhethri eJalimane ukuze afanelekele ukuthola isikweletu sentela yokukhiqiza amabhethri ase-US.Njengamanje, baxoxa ngokuthumela imishini yokukhiqiza e-United States.
■Ingabe izinkampani zaseShayina zilahlekelwa kakhulu?
UTesla, owake waba ngumholi, akaseyena umkhiqizi wezimoto zikagesi omkhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni.Engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka, i-BYD ithengise izimoto zikagesi ezingu-640,000, kuyilapho uTesla, owayekade engowokuqala, wathengisa kuphela i-564,000, ebeka isibili.
Eqinisweni, uMusk uye wahleka usulu i-BYD izikhathi eziningi, futhi waze wafafaza ngokuqondile ku-interview, "I-BYD yinkampani engenabo ubuchwepheshe, futhi intengo yemoto iphezulu kakhulu umkhiqizo." Kodwa lokhu akuzange kuvimbele uTesla no-BYD ekubeni abangane. .Amabhethri e-Blade ahlinzekwe yi-BYD alethwe kwaTesla's Gigafactory eBerlin, eJalimane, ngokusho kwabantu abaningi abajwayelene nalolu daba.
Kungabonakala ukuthi asikho isikhundla esiphelele, izithakazelo zaphakade kuphela, futhi amandla amasha e-China nase-United States sekuyisikhathi eside ehlanganiswe.
Ngemuva kweminyaka yentuthuko esheshayo, imakethe yezimoto zamandla entsha yaseShayina isisungule iqoqo lezimboni eliphelele kunawo wonke emhlabeni.Ukuze kuqiniswe ilungelo lokukhuluma ochungechungeni lwezimboni, abakhiqizi bebhethri abamelwe yi-CATL bazophinde bazame konke okusemandleni abo ukunweba amatende abo ochungechungeni lwezimboni olukhuphuka nomfula. Izinkampani eziningi zaseShayina ziphinde zibambe iqhaza ekuthuthukisweni kwezimayini zaphesheya ngokubamba iqhaza ngokulingana, ukubhala phansi, kanye nokuba ngabanikazi bazo. I-Ganfeng Lithium ne-Tianqi Lithium yibhizinisi elithuthukisa izimayini ze-lithium zaphesheya kwezilwandle.
Kungashiwo ukuthi kubhethri lamandla omhlaba wonke i-TOP10, izinkampani ezingu-6 zaseShayina, izinkampani ezingu-3 zaseKorea, kanye nenkampani engu-1 yaseJapane sekuyinto evamile.Ngokwemininingwane yakamuva yocwaningo lwe-SNE, izinkampani eziyisithupha zaseShayina zinesamba semakethe esingama-56%, lapho i-CATL inyuse isabelo sayo semakethe sisuka ku-28% saya ku-34%.
Uma kuqhathaniswa namanye amazwe, uchungechunge lwemboni yezimoto zikagesi yaseShayina selwenze intuthuko ebanzi ukusuka phezulu kuya phansi kuya phezulu kwemithombo yamaminerali ethinta phansi, amabhethri anamandla aphakathi nendawo athola isisekelo esiqinile, futhi izinhlobo zezimoto ezingaphansi komfula ziqhakaza yonke indawo.
Futhi uBiden uzimisele “ukuze acishe” “ibhethri” lomhlaba wonke.I-CATL inqume ukubambezela ukumemezela imboni yaseNyakatho Melika ngenxa yokushuba kwesimo sosomlomo weNdlu yaseMelika, ngokusho kwabantu abalwaziyo lolu daba.Kubikwa ukuthi le mboni ekuqaleni ibihlela ukutshala izigidigidi zamarandi ukuze ihlinzeke ngezimoto zakwaTesla nezakwaFord.
Ngaphambilini, uZeng Yuqun, usihlalo we-CATL, naye wakwenza kwacaca: “Kufanele siye emakethe yase-US!” Kepha manje i-CATL itshale ama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-7.34 emakethe yaseHungary.
Mhlawumbe, izinkampani eziningi zizomisa izinhlelo zazo zokungena emakethe yase-US noma zakhe izimboni e-US.Ekuqaleni, kwakunzima kakhulu ezinkampanini zezimoto zaseChina ukuthumela e-United States. Ngaphezu kokugxambukela kwezombusazwe, i-United States nayo inohlelo lokulawula oluqinile, futhi izinkampani zezimoto zaseChina zivame ukukhawulelwa.Kusukela ngo-2005, izinhlobo eziyisithupha zaseShayina zizamile futhi zehluleka.
Umhlaziyi wemboni yezimoto ukholelwa ukuthi ukumenyezelwa “koMthetho Wokuncishiswa Kokwehla kwamandla emali” e-United States empeleni kuzobangela ukulahlekelwa okulinganiselwe ezinkampanini zezimoto zaseChina, ngenxa yokuthi izinkampani zezimoto zaseShayina azikatshali izimali ezimbonini ezinkulu e-United States, nasezimakethe zazo. isabelo e-United States sicishe sibe ngu-zero. .Njengoba lingekho nhlobo ibhizinisi, umphumela omubi kakhulu ukuthi ngeke likwazi ukungena emakethe yase-US.
"Okwamanje, ukulahlekelwa okukhulu kakhulu kungase kube ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri kagesi, kodwa izinkampani zamabhethri kagesi zaseShayina zingathembela emakethe yaseYurophu ukuthi zikwenzele lokho, futhi umnotho okhulayo ungaletha izinzuzo zezindleko ezinkampanini zamabhethri zaseChina." Lo oshiwo ngenhla uthe.
■Ingabe i-United States ingayithola “iminyaka emine elahlekile”?
Selokhu uTrump ethathe izintambo, izimoto zaseMelika ezintsha zamandla ziye zabhekana “neminyaka emine elahlekile”, ezicishe zimane ezingeni lenqubomgomo kazwelonke, futhi zishiywe kude yiChina neYurophu.
Kuwo wonke unyaka ka-2020, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi e-United States kungaphansi kwama-350,000, kanti izinombolo eChina naseYurophu ziyizigidi eziyi-1.24 kanye nezigidi eziyi-1.36, ngokulandelana.
Akulula ukuthi i-Biden ikhulise isidingo sabathengi ngokwandisa uxhaso, ngoba imingcele ebekwe yi-United States iyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu, okwenza kube nzima ezinkampanini zezimoto kanye nabathengi ukuthola imali yangempela.
Phambilini, izikweletu ezimbili zokuvuselela ezihlongozwa yiBiden nazo ziye zabhekana nezingqinamba.Lapho uBiden eqala ukubusa, waphonsa “amabhomu enkosi” amabili elandelana: elinye laliwukunikeza imboni yezimoto zikagesi inqubomgomo yokuvuselela amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-174 ukuze kuxhaswe ukusetshenziswa nokwakha izinqwaba zokushaja, njll.; enye yayiwukubuyisela ukuphatha kukaTrump. Uxhaso olusha lokuthenga imoto yamandla lwakhanselwa phakathi nalesi sikhathi, futhi umkhawulo ophezulu wesamba sosizo lwebhayisikili walungiswa waba amadola aseMelika ayi-12,500.
Ngokuhlukile kwamanye amazwe, ukukhetha uwoyela noma amandla amasha e-United States akuyona neze indaba emkhakheni wezimboni, kodwa kuyisimo sezulu esihlobene nezombusazwe.
Isibonelo, kukhona ukuphikisana eqinisweni lokuthi imboni kawoyela yase-US inezinqubomgomo eziningi zomxhaso ezingacacile, okujwayelekile kakhulu okuyizinga eliphansi lentela kaphethiloli.Isikhungo socwaningo lwasekhaya siphenye isilinganiso sentela kaphethiloli enanini lokugcina lokudayisa, sathola ukuthi i-United States ingu-11%, kuyilapho i-China ingu-30%, i-Japan i-39%, kanti i-Germany iphezulu kakhulu njengoba i-57%.
Ngakho-ke, uxhaso lwezigidigidi eziyi-174 lunciphe kakhulu ngaphansi kokuvinjelwa okuphindaphindiwe kwe-Republican Party, kanti uxhaso lwe-12,500 nalo selubeke umkhawulo: $4,500 kuphela ezinkampanini zezimoto “ezihlangene” - GM, Ford and Stellantis, Tesla nezinye Izinkampani zezimoto. wama emnyango.
Eqinisweni, ngaphezu kukaTesla, obelokhu ethatha cishe u-60% -80% wemakethe yezimoto zikagesi yaseMelika, izinkampani ezintathu ezinkulu zezimoto zasekhaya zase-US zinomthwalo osindayo, zisilela ekuguqukeni, kanye nokuntuleka kwemikhiqizo eqhumayo engashaywa. . Ukusebenza bekulokhu kukuhle kakhulu.
Ngokwezibalo ze-ICCT, kuzoba namamodeli wamandla amasha angama-59 azothengiswa emakethe yase-US ngo-2020, kuyilapho i-China ne-Europe ihlinzeka ngamamodeli angama-300 kanye ne-180 ngokulandelanayo ngesikhathi esifanayo.
Ngokuphathelene nedatha yokuthengisa, nakuba ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi e-United States kuphindwe kabili kuya ku-630,000 ngo-2021, ukuthengiswa e-China cishe kuphindwe kathathu kuya ku-3.3 million, kubalwa cishe ingxenye yengqikithi yomhlaba wonke; Ukudayiswa kwezimoto kunyuke ngo-65% kwafinyelela ku-2.3 million.
Engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka, esimeni sesicelo sikaBiden sokukhuphuka kwamanani kawoyela, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zamandla amasha e-United States kukhuphuke ngo-52%. %.
Ngokusho kwabahlaziyi bezimboni, ngokungena ngesivinini kwezinkampani zezimoto ezisunguliwe njenge-GM, Ford, Toyota, neVolkswagen, kanye namandla amasha kagesi afana noRivian, kulindeleke ukuthi ngo-2022, isibalo samamodeli ezimoto zikagesi e-United States. Amazwe azodlula i-100, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi angenele ukuncintisana phakathi kwezikole eziyikhulu zokucabanga.I-F150-Lighting, i-R1T, i-Cybertruck, njll. izovala igebe emakethe ye-pickup kagesi ehlanzekile, kanti uLyric, Mustang Mach-E, Wrangler namanye amamodeli kulindeleke ukuthi aqhubekisele phambili ukusheshisa ukungena emakethe ye-US SUV.
Njengamanje, i-US ngokusobala isendaweni eyodwa ngemuva uma kuziwa ezimotweni zikagesi.Njengamanje, izinga lokungena kuyo yonke imakethe yezimoto zamandla amasha e-United States lisesezingeni eliphansi lika-6.59%, kanti izinga lokungena kwezimoto zamandla amasha eChina lifinyelele ku-22%.
Njengoba uLi Qian esho, “Imboni yezimoto zikagesi yaseChina ibilokhu ithuthuka emzabalazweni oqhubekayo iminyaka eminingi. Isimo samanje ukuthi i-United States ithembele ekusekelweni, futhi i-China ithembele ekuguqukeni nasekuphindaphindeni. Kuyacaca shazi ukuthi ubani lo mkhuba. Izinkampani ezingaphumelela kulo mqhudelwano cishe ngeke zibe nezimbangi emakethe yamazwe ngamazwe.”
Nokho, indlela yokulondoloza inzuzo yokuqala yokuhamba kwezimoto zikagesi iyona nto esigxile kuyo ekucatshangelweni kwethu kwesikhathi esizayo.Phela, ithrekhi yezimoto zamandla amasha iseyinde kakhulu, futhi emkhakheni wezobunhloli, ama-chips ethu asabambekile.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Sep-22-2022