Tesla is now not only planning to subvert the electric vehicle market, but also preparing to point the way to the electrical industry and even the technology industry behind it.
At Tesla’s global investor conference “Grand Plan 3” on March 2, Colin Campbell, Tesla’s vice president of powertrain engineering, said that “Tesla will create a permanent Magnetic electric vehicle engine to reduce the complexity and cost of electronic equipment”.
Looking at the bullshit that has been blown up in previous “Grand Plans”, many of them have not been realized (completely unmanned driving, Robotaxi network, Mars immigration), and some have been discounted (solar cells, Starlink satellites). Because of this, all parties in the market It is suspected that Tesla’s so-called “permanent magnet electric vehicle engine that does not contain rare earth elements” may only exist in the PPT. However, because the idea is too subversive (if it can be realized, it will be a heavy hammer for the rare earth industry), people in the industry have “opened up” Musk’s views.
Zhang Ming, chief expert of China Electronics Technology Group Corporation, secretary-general of the Magnetic Materials Branch of China Electronic Materials Industry Association, and executive director of the China Rare Earth Society, said that Musk’s strategy is more of a “forced” explanation, in line with the US plan to develop electric vehicles. Politically correct investment strategy. A professor from the Department of Electrical Engineering at the School of Mechanical Engineering at Shanghai University believes that Musk may have his own position on not using rare earths: “We cannot say that foreigners don’t use rare earths, we just follow suit.”
Are there motors that don’t use rare earths?
The motors of electric vehicles commonly used in the market can be divided into two categories: those that do not require rare earths, and permanent magnet synchronous motors that require rare earths.
The so-called basic principle is the electromagnetic induction of high school physics theory, which uses the coil to generate magnetism after electrification. Compared with permanent magnet motors, the power and torque are lower, and the volume is larger; in contrast, permanent magnet synchronous motors use neodymium iron boron (Nd-Fe-B) permanent magnets, that is, magnets. Its advantage is not only that the structure is simpler, but more importantly, the volume can be made smaller, which has great advantages for electric vehicles that emphasize space layout and lightweight.
Tesla’s early electric vehicles used AC asynchronous motors: initially, Model S and Model X used AC induction, but since 2017, Model 3 has adopted a new permanent magnet DC motor when it was launched, and other The same motor has been used on the model. Data show that the permanent magnet motor used in the Tesla Model 3 is 6% more efficient than the induction motor used before.
Permanent magnet motors and asynchronous motors can also be matched with each other. For example, Tesla uses AC induction motors for the front wheels and permanent magnet synchronous motors for the rear wheels on Model 3 and other models. This type of hybrid drive balances performance and efficiency, and also reduces the use of rare earth materials.
Although compared with the high efficiency of permanent magnet synchronous motors, the efficiency of asynchronous AC motors is slightly lower, but the latter does not require the use of rare earths, and the cost can be reduced by about 10% compared with the former. According to the calculation of Zheshang Securities, the value of rare earth permanent magnets for bicycle drive motors of new energy vehicles is about 1200-1600 yuan. If new energy vehicles abandon rare earths, it will not contribute much to cost reduction on the cost side, and a certain amount of cruising range will be sacrificed in terms of performance.
But for Tesla, which is obsessed with controlling costs at all costs, this drizzle might not be considered. Mr. Zhang, the relevant person in charge of a domestic electric drive supplier, admitted to “Electric Vehicle Observer” that the motor efficiency can reach 97% by using rare earth permanent magnet materials, and 93% without rare earth, but the cost can be reduced by 10%, which is still a good deal overall. of.
So what motors does Tesla plan to use in the future? Many interpretations on the market failed to tell why. Let’s go back to Colin Campbell’s original words to find out:
I mentioned how to reduce the amount of rare earths in the powertrain in the future. Demand for rare earths is increasing dramatically as the world transitions to clean energy. Not only will it be difficult to meet this demand, but mining rare earths has certain risks in terms of environmental protection and other aspects. So we designed the next generation of permanent magnet drive motors, which do not use any rare earth materials at all.
Take a look, the meaning of the original text is already very clear. The next generation still uses permanent magnet motors, not other types of motors. However, due to factors such as environmental protection and supply, the rare earth elements in the current permanent magnet motors need to be removed. Replace it with other cheap and easy-to-get elements! It is necessary to have the high performance of permanent magnets without being stuck in the neck. This is Tesla’s wishful thinking of “needing both”!
So what elements are made of materials that can satisfy Tesla’s ambitions? The public account “RIO Electric Drive” starts from the current classification of various permanent magnets, and finally speculates that Tesla may use the fourth-generation permanent magnet SmFeN to replace the existing NdFeB in the future. There are two reasons: Although Sm is also a rare earth Elements, but the earth’s crust is rich in content, low cost and sufficient supply; and from the performance point of view, samarium iron nitrogen is the magnetic steel material closest to the rare earth neodymium iron boron.
Classification of various permanent magnets (Image source: RIO Electric Drive)
Regardless of what materials Tesla will use to replace rare earths in the future, Musk’s more urgent task may be to reduce costs. Although Tesla’s answer to the market is impressive, it is not perfect, and the market still has a lot of expectations for it.
Vision Anxiety Behind Earnings Reports
On January 26, 2023, Tesla handed over its 2022 financial report data: a total of more than 1.31 million electric vehicles were delivered globally, a year-on-year increase of 40%; total revenue was approximately US$81.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 51%; net profit was approximately US$12.56 billion , doubled year-on-year, and achieved profitability for three consecutive years.
Tesla to double net profit by 2022
Data source: Tesla Global Financial Report
Although the financial report for the first quarter of 2023 will not be announced until April 20, according to the current trend, this is likely to be another report card full of “surprises”: in the first quarter, Tesla’s global production exceeded 440,000 . Electric vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 44.3%; more than 422,900 vehicles were delivered, a record high, a year-on-year increase of 36%. Among them, the two main models, Model 3 and Model Y, produced more than 421,000 vehicles and delivered more than 412,000 vehicles; Model S and Model X models produced more than 19,000 vehicles and delivered more than 10,000 vehicles. In the first quarter, Tesla’s global price cuts produced significant results.
Tesla’s sales in the first quarter
Image source: Tesla official website
Of course, price measures include not only price cuts, but also the introduction of low-priced products. A few days ago, it was reported that Tesla plans to launch a low-priced model, positioned as the “small Model Y”, for which Tesla is building an annual production capacity plan of up to 4 million vehicles. According to Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, if Tesla launches models with lower prices and smaller grades, it will effectively occupy markets such as Europe and Japan that prefer small electric vehicles. This model may bring Tesla a global delivery scale far exceeding that of the Model 3.
In 2022, Musk once said that Tesla will open 10 to 12 new factories soon, with the goal of achieving annual sales of 20 million vehicles in 2030.
But how difficult it will be for Tesla to achieve the annual sales target of 20 million vehicles if it relies on its existing products: In 2022, the world’s highest-selling car company will be Toyota Motor, with an annual sales volume of about 10.5 million vehicles, followed by Volkswagen, with an annual sales volume of 10.5 million vehicles. About 8.3 million units were sold. Tesla’s goal exceeds the combined sales of Toyota and Volkswagen! The global market is so big, and the auto industry is basically saturated, but once a pure electric car of about 150,000 yuan is launched, coupled with Tesla’s car-machine system, it may become a product that will disrupt the market.
The price has come down and the sales volume has gone up. In order to ensure profit margins, reducing costs has become an inevitable choice. But according to Tesla’s latest official statement, rare earth permanent magnet motors, what to give up is not permanent magnets, but rare earths!
However, the current material science may not be able to support Tesla’s ambitions. The research reports of many institutions, including CICC, have shown that it is difficult to realize the removal of rare earths from permanent magnet motors in the medium term. It seems that if Tesla is determined to say goodbye to rare earths, he should turn to scientists instead of PPT.
Post time:
Apr-14-2023
