During the 140 years of the development of the automobile industry, old and new forces have ebbed and flowed, and the chaos of death and rebirth has never stopped.
The closing, bankruptcy or reorganization of companies in the global market always brings too many unimaginable uncertainties to the automobile consumer market in each period.
Now, in the new stage of energy transformation and industrial transformation, when the kings of the old era take off their crowns one after another, the reshuffle and ebb of emerging car companies are also happening one after another. Perhaps “natural selection, survival of the fittest” “The law of nature is just another way to repeat it in the auto market.
In the past few years, the electrification process based on China has sanctioned too many traditional micro-car companies and eliminated most of the speculators. But obviously, as the new energy industry enters a white-hot stage, the lessons of history are still telling us that human beings will never learn from the experience of history!
Behind the names of Bojun, Sailin, Byton, Ranger, Green Packet, etc., what is reflected is the bitter fruit of the transformation of China’s auto industry.
Unfortunately, just like the presumptuousness after the pain, the death of these Chinese car companies not only failed to bring a little vigilance to the entire industry, but instead provided a template for more and more overseas players to follow.
Entering 2022, PPT car manufacturers and the like have died out in China, and second-tier new forces such as Weimar and Tianji that survived before are increasingly in trouble.
On the other hand, the global market is clamoring to surpass Tesla’s Lucid and Rivian, FF and Nikola, which are known as liars, and emerging car companies from all over the world. Compared with “selling cars”, they still care about the scene Carnival about capital.
Just like the Chinese auto market five years ago, encircling money, enclosing land, and trying every means to “paint a big pie”, such behaviors that are despised by everyone but always attract the attention of capital, are incubating scenes of farce in the global market, or It’s a car-making puzzle with little hope.
Everything is aligned with “money”
After years of market testing and competition with capital, it is reasonable to say that China has completed the landing inspection of new power companies.
First, the mass base needed for the auto market to complete its transformation in the high-speed involution has been established. The increasingly demanding consumer demands have long made it impossible for any emerging car company to point fingers in the market with only capital orientation. A close logical relationship needs to be established between “building a car” and “selling a car”. If the market support is lost, the tragic consequences are obvious.
Second, after the policy dividends of traditional Chinese car companies have gradually disappeared, the shock caused by a sufficiently violent offensive to the entire new energy industry is indeed unprecedented.
For emerging car companies without a certain background and technical reserves, at this stage, there is no chance to break through with the remaining will. Evergrande Automobile, which crashed down, is a good example.
And these can always show that from the perspective of the Chinese auto market, looking at the new forces that are still emerging in the global market, impetuousness and hopelessness are not the background of these companies.
In North America, Lucid Motors, which has been active in front of everyone, has the support of the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund (PIF). Rivian, which once conducted one of the largest IPOs in the history of the United States, has achieved certain results in mass production delivery, but the real situation However, the inclusiveness of every mature auto market is far less limitless than imagined.
Lucid, which is backed by local tycoons in the Middle East, cannot change its own cost far higher than its revenue. Rivian is trapped by supply chain disruptions. External collaborations such as co-manufacturing electric vans…
As for the overseas new forces such as Canoo and Fisker that we occasionally mentioned, in addition to using new models to satisfy the appetite of onlookers, whether it is good to find an OEM or build a factory for mass production, it has never been done until now. There is a glimmer of good news that is different from the former.
It seems absurd to describe their current situation with “chicken feathers all over the place”. But compared with China’s “Wei Xiaoli”, it is really hard to imagine a better word to describe it.
In addition, Elon Musk has thrown out his views in public more than once: Both Lucid and Rivian have a tendency to go bankrupt. Unless they make drastic changes, they’ll all go bankrupt. Let me ask, do these companies really have a chance to turn around?
The answer may differ from reality. We cannot use the speed of change of Chinese car companies to evaluate the pace of change in the world car industry. These new American forces waiting for an opportunity to enter the market all hide their own bargaining chips against the market.
But I prefer to believe that the illusion created by the new energy industry is too captivating. Just like the Chinese auto market back then, in order to leverage capital, how can many speculators who are eager to try have awe of the market.
Just like before and after the Los Angeles Auto Show in November, Fisker, which had no news for a long time, officially announced that its first pure electric SUV model, the Ocean, was put into production as scheduled at Magna’s carbon-neutral plant in Graz, Austria.
From the United States to the world, we can see that new car-making forces have sprung up like mushrooms after rain.
The new model of the American start-up company Drako Motors-Dragon was officially released; after ACE and Jax, Alpha Motor Corporation announced the new electric product Montage; Debuted in a real car state for the first time…
In Europe, the Scottish automaker Munro officially released its mass-produced Munro Mark 1 and positioned it as a pure electric off-road vehicle. Ten thousand.
Munro Mark 1
With this situation, no matter what the outside world thinks about it, I only have one feeling that this moment is just like that moment, and the chaos in China many years ago has been vividly remembered.
If these new forces all over the world fail to change the values, then “death is a reincarnation” will continue to bury the spark of deflagration in this show-like new car presentation.
Gambling against capital, where is the end?
That’s right, 2022 is the first year that China’s new energy vehicle market has entered into a healthy and orderly development. After looking forward to overtaking on curves for many years, China’s auto industry has successfully completed the control and guidance of the general trend of the industry.
The electrification led by new forces has destroyed and rebuilt the inherent laws of the entire industry. While the western market is still struggling with Tesla’s madness, emerging companies led by “Wei Xiaoli” have penetrated into Europe and other places one after another.
Seeing the rise of China’s power, foreigners with a keen sense of smell are bound to follow closely behind. And this led to the grand occasion of the rise of new global powers as described earlier.
From the United States to Europe, and even other auto markets, taking advantage of the gaps in which traditional auto companies failed to turn around in a timely manner, emerging auto companies are emerging in an endless stream to seize market opportunities.
But still the same sentence, all plans with impure purposes will eventually be backstabbed by the market. Therefore, judging and predicting the future development of new overseas forces based on their current status is not a topic with a clear answer anyway.
We do not deny that in the face of major industry trends, there are always newcomers who are fortunate enough to be favored by the capital market. Lucid, Rivian and other new forces that are constantly exposed under the spotlight have won the favor of some bigwigs, which is the initial care given by this market.
Looking at overseas, a new force that went public in the United States was born in Southeast Asia.
“Vietnam Evergrande” is the nickname of this car company called Vinfast. How familiar is it to start real estate and rely on the rough style of “buy, buy, buy”.
However, when VinFast announced on December 7 that it had submitted IPO registration documents to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and planned to list on Nasdaq, and the stock code “VFS” was drawn up, who could say that those eager for quick success The new forces can obtain an ideal future.
Since 2022, how cautious capital has been towards the new energy industry has already been seen from the shrinking market value of “Wei Xiaoli”.
In the dark moment from July 23 to July 27 in the middle of this year alone, Weilai’s market value evaporated by 6.736 billion US dollars, Xiaopeng’s market value evaporated by 6.117 billion US dollars, and the ideal market value evaporated by 4.479 billion US dollars.
Since then, the identity label that already has a full potential has made it more difficult for those car companies that rely heavily on funds to survive.
In other words, since its listing, the so-called 10 billion valuation will only be a flash in the pan. Without strong technical performance and bullish sales superposition, how can capital have so much patience. For a while, in the development process that is gradually getting cold, in addition to being wiped out by reality, it is not easy to get it to warm up again and give support.
This is still the case for “Wei Xiaoli”, who has waded through countless market minefields. Where do newcomers who are still trying to plunder the market get their confidence?
Vinfast is one of the best, but whether it is devoted to the transformation of the automobile industry, or wants to take advantage of the current market heat wave to make money in the capital market, how can anyone with a discerning eye not see it.
In the same way, when the Turkish car company TOGG tried to list Germany as its first overseas destination, Lightyear, an electric car start-up company from the Netherlands, anxiously released the mass-produced solar electric car Lightyear 0, and the new French car brand Hopium The first hydrogen fuel cell vehicle Hopium Machina was released at the Paris Motor Show. The Polish electric vehicle company EMP chose to cooperate with Geely to build a pure electric vehicle under the IZERA brand using the SEA vast structure. Some things are always self-evident.
At the moment, adventurous people such as Lucid dare to enter China and start recruiting personnel, or plan to officially enter China at a certain point in the future. No matter how much forward-looking they have, they will not change the fact that China does not need so many new energy companies, let alone There is no need for new overseas forces that regard Tesla as an opponent but have no competitive label.
Many years ago, the Chinese auto market killed too many similar companies, and the capital has long seen the true face of these speculators.
Today, many years later, when more and more new overseas forces continue to follow this survival logic, I firmly believe that the “bubble” will be burst soon.
Soon, someone who plays with capital will eventually be backlashed by capital.
Post time: Dec-16-2022