Introduction: The Chinese National holiday is coming to an end, and the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” sales season in the automotive industry is still going on. Major auto manufacturers have tried their best to attract consumers: launching new products, reducing prices, subsidizing gifts… In new energy The competition in the automotive field is particularly fierce. Traditional car companies and new car manufacturers have penetrated the battlefield into the vast sinking market.
Li Kaiwei, a salesman living in the county seat, plans to buy a new car within the year, but he hesitated for a long time when facing the issue of choosing a fuel vehicle or a new energy vehicle.
”The energy consumption of new energy vehicles is low, the cost of using vehicles is also low, and there are policy incentives, which save money and trouble than fuel vehicles. However, at this stage, the charging infrastructure is not perfect, and charging is not convenient. In addition, I buy a car not only It is daily commuting and suburban play, mainly for business trips, and the cruising range of new energy vehicles is also a big problem.” Li Kaiwei said worriedly.
The confrontation about which is better and which is worse plays out in Li Kaiwei’s mind every day. He also quietly placed a balance in his heart, one end is a fuel car, the other end is a new energy vehicle. After two or three months of repeated inspection and After the entanglement, the balance was finally biased towards the end of the new energy vehicle.
”Third- and fourth-tier cities are paying more and more attention to the supporting infrastructure for new energy vehicle charging, and have put forward construction goals and related safeguard measures. It is believed that new energy vehicles and their supporting facilities will soon develop rapidly.” Li Kaiwei said to “Takeshen Technology”.
In the sinking market, there are not a few consumers who choose to buy new energy vehicles. Li Rui, a full-time mother living in a third-tier city, recently bought a 2022 Leapsport T03, “For consumers living in small cities, it is nothing more than picking up children, shopping for groceries, driving new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles. It makes no difference, and you don’t have to worry about range in the city.”
”Compared with fuel vehicles, the cost of using new energy vehicles is very low.” Li Rui admitted, “The average weekly driving distance is about 150 kilometers. Under normal circumstances, only one charge per week is required, and the average daily vehicle cost is calculated. Only a buck or two.”
The low cost of using a car is also the main reason why many consumers decide to buy new energy vehicles. In the first half of this year, the township civil servant Zhang Qian replaced the fuel vehicle with a new energy vehicle. Since he lives in the county, Zhang Qian has to drive between the county and the town every day. It is much more cost-effective than fuel vehicles, and it can basically save 60%-70% of the cost of fuel vehicles.”
Li Zhenshan, a dealer of Leap Motor, also clearly felt that consumers in the sinking market generally have a high awareness of new energy vehicles, and the continuous increase in sales of new energy vehicles is inseparable from it. The market structure has changed, competition in first- and second-tier cities has become increasingly fierce, while demand in third- and fourth-tier cities is accelerating.”
The demand in the sinking market is strong, and the sales network of new energy vehicle manufacturers is also advancing simultaneously. “Tankeshen Technology” visited and found that in the large-scale commercial and supermarket complexes in third-tier cities in Shandong Province, GAC Aian, Ideal Auto, Small Stores or exhibition areas of Peng Auto, AITO Wenjie and Leapmotor.
In fact, since the second half of 2020, new energy vehicle manufacturers including Tesla and Weilai have expanded their business scope to third- and fourth-tier cities, and invested in the establishment of sales service companies and experience centers. It can be said that new energy vehicle manufacturers have begun to “roll in” in the sinking market.
”With the advancement of technology and the reduction of costs, the consumer demand of consumers in the sinking market will further increase. In the process of new energy vehicle sales hitting new highs, the sinking market will become a new battlefield and the main battlefield.” Li Zhenshan said frankly, ” Whether it is a sinking market consumer or a new energy vehicle manufacturer, they are preparing for the transformation of the old and new battlefields.”
1. The sinking market has huge potential
The potential of the sinking market has begun to emerge.
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first half of 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 1.2 times year-on-year, and the market share reached 21.6%. Among them, with the successive introduction of policies such as automobiles going to the countryside, the sales of new energy vehicles in the sinking markets such as third- and fourth-tier cities and their counties and townships have shown a hot trend, and the penetration rate has increased from 11.2% in 2021 to 20.3%, a year-on-year increase. close to 100%.
”The sinking market consisting of the vast number of counties and townships and third- and fourth-tier cities has huge consumption power. In the past, new energy vehicles were mainly driven by policies in the sinking market, but this year, it has basically been driven by the market, especially in third- and fourth-tier cities. The penetration rate of automobiles has grown very fast, and both the month-on-month growth rate and the year-on-year growth rate have shown a growth trend.” Wang Yinhai, a person in the automobile industry, told “Tankeshen Technology”.
This is indeed the case. According to the statistics of Essence Securities Research Center, the proportion of first-tier cities, second-tier cities, third-tier cities, fourth-tier cities and below cities in the number of new energy passenger car insurance in February 2022 is 14.3%. , 49.4%, 20.6% and 15.6%. Among them, the proportion of insurance coverage in first-tier cities has continued to decline, while the proportion of insurance coverage in third- and fourth-tier cities and below has continued to increase since 2019.
The “Insight Report on Consumption Behavior of New Energy Vehicle Users in Sinking Markets” released by Knowing Chedi and China Electric Vehicle Hundred People’s Association also pointed out that when consumers in sinking markets choose vehicles, the proportion of new energy vehicles is higher than that of first- and second-tier consumers. urban consumers.
Li Zhenshan is very optimistic about the development of new energy vehicles in the sinking market. He believes that the potential of the sinking market has not been fully released at this stage.
On the one hand, according to the results of the seventh census, the national population is 1.443 billion, of which the population of first- and second-tier cities only accounts for 35% of the country’s total population, while the population of third-tier cities and below accounts for 65% of the country’s total population. Combining with the trend of the proportion of new energy vehicle sales, although the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in first- and second-tier cities is much higher than that in third-tier cities and below, since the second half of 2021, the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in third-tier cities and below has increased. beyond first- and second-tier cities.
”The sinking market not only has a large consumer base, but also has a relatively large growth space, especially in the vast rural areas, the sinking market is still a blue ocean.” Li Zhenshan said frankly.
On the other hand, compared with first- and second-tier cities, the environment and conditions of the sinking market are more suitable for new energy vehicles. For example, there are abundant resources such as roads and parking spaces, the construction of charging infrastructure is relatively easy, and the travel radius is shorter, and the anxiety of cruising range is relatively high. low wait.
Previously, Li Zhenshan had conducted market research in some third- and fourth-tier cities in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei, and found that charging piles were generally installed or reserved for new residential buildings and public parking lots, especially in some urban-rural borders and public parking lots. In suburban rural areas, almost every household has a yard, which provides great convenience for the installation of private charging piles.
”As long as the configuration is appropriate, the safety is good, and the price is moderate, the purchasing power of consumers in the sinking market is still considerable.” Wang Yinhai also explained the same point of view to “Tankeshen Technology”.
Taking Nezha Auto, which is keen to take root in the sinking market, as an example, its delivery volume seems to support the above point of view. According to the latest delivery data of Neta Auto, its delivery volume in September was 18,005 units, a year-on-year increase of 134% and a month-on-month increase of 12.41%. month-on-year growth.
At the same time, relevant departments and local governments are also actively promoting the sinking market to release consumption potential.
On the one hand, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments jointly launched the activity of new energy vehicles going to the countryside. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2021, a total of 1.068 million new energy vehicles will be sent to the countryside, a year-on-year increase of 169.2%, which is about 10% higher than the overall growth rate of the new energy vehicle market, and the contribution rate is close to 30%.
On the other hand, a total of 19 provinces and cities across the country have successively issued local subsidy policies to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles by means of cash subsidies, consumer coupons, and lottery draws, with the maximum subsidy reaching 25,000 yuan.
”The new energy vehicle going to the countryside activities in 2022 has begun, which is expected to directly promote the sales of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year, and further increase the penetration rate of the sinking market.” Wang Yinhai said.
2. Against low-speed electric vehicles
In fact, the activity of new energy vehicles going to the countryside can improve the level of rural traffic safety, drive the improvement of infrastructure such as road networks and power grids in rural areas, and at the same time promote the new energy vehicle industry to enter the market-driven stage in an all-round way.
However, even if the new energy vehicles going to the countryside enjoy a number of discounts in terms of car purchase price, supporting services, and after-sales services, for rural consumers, low-speed electric vehicles priced below 20,000 yuan seem to have more advantages.
Low-speed electric vehicles are commonly known as “old man’s music”. Because they do not require licenses and driving licenses, drivers not only do not need to undergo systematic training, but are even completely unconstrained by traffic rules, resulting in many traffic accidents. Public statistics show that from 2013 to 2018, there were as many as 830,000 traffic accidents caused by low-speed electric vehicles across the country, resulting in 18,000 deaths and 186,000 physical injuries to varying degrees.
Although low-speed electric vehicles have potential safety hazards, they are the most popular means of transportation in towns and rural areas. A low-speed electric vehicle dealer recalled to “Tankeshen Technology” that around 2020, it can sell up to four vehicles a day. For five low-speed electric vehicles, the cheapest model is only 6,000 yuan, and the most expensive is only 20,000 yuan.
The rise of low-speed electric vehicles in 2013 has maintained a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50% for several consecutive years. In 2018, the total output of low-speed electric vehicles exceeded 1 million, and the market scale reached 100 billion. Although no relevant data has been disclosed after 2018, according to industry estimates, the total output in 2020 has exceeded 2 million.
However, due to the low safety of low-speed electric vehicles and frequent traffic accidents, they have been severely regulated.
”For rural consumers, most of the travel radius will not exceed 20 kilometers, so they are more inclined to choose transportation with both economy and convenience, while low-speed electric vehicles are not expensive, and they can run 60 kilometers on a single charge, plus The body is small and flexible, and it can also shelter from wind and rain when necessary, which has naturally become the first choice of rural consumers.” Wang Yinhai analyzed.
The reason why low-speed electric vehicles can grow “savagely” in townships and rural areas is mainly based on two factors: one is that the travel needs of consumers in towns and rural areas have not been addressed and satisfied; attractive.
In terms of demand, according to the “Insight Report on Consumer Behavior of New Energy Vehicle Users in Sinking Markets”, parameter configuration and model prices are the main factors affecting consumers’ car purchases in sinking markets, but less attention is paid to exterior interiors and cutting-edge technologies. . In addition, the cruising range and charging issues are the concerns of users in the sinking market, and they pay more attention to maintenance and supporting facilities.
”The experience of low-speed electric vehicles dominating townships and rural areas may bring some inspiration for new energy vehicles to enter the sinking market, and break the existing pattern with the help of preferential promotion measures for going to the countryside.” Wang Yinhai reminded that new energy vehicle manufacturers When entering the sinking market, we should give priority to middle-aged and elderly consumers, focus on the layout of communication channels and sales channels, and quickly iterate on existing products and accessories according to consumer needs.
Beyond this revelation, there is a general consensus that lower-priced micro EVs will be the replacement for low-speed EVs. In fact, among the 66 models participating in the campaign of new energy vehicles going to the countryside in 2021, the sales of miniature electric vehicles with a price of less than 100,000 yuan and a cruising range of less than 300 kilometers are the most popular.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, also said that micro electric vehicles have good market prospects in rural areas and can greatly help improve the travel environment in rural areas.
”To a certain extent, low-speed electric vehicles have also completed market education for townships and rural areas. In the next few years, taking advantage of the transformation and upgrading of low-speed electric vehicle manufacturers, miniature electric vehicles may fully undertake consumption in townships and rural areas. It has become an important driving force for the growth of new energy vehicle sales.” Wang Yinhai judged.
3. It is still difficult to sink
Although the sinking market has great potential, it is not an easy task for new energy vehicles to enter the sinking market.
The first is that the charging infrastructure in the sinking market is less and unevenly distributed.
According to statistics from the Ministry of Public Security, as of June 2022, the number of new energy vehicles in the country has reached 10.01 million, while the number of charging piles is 3.98 million, and the vehicle-to-pile ratio is 2.5:1. There is still a large gap. According to the survey results of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, the retention level of public charging piles in third-, fourth-, and fifth-tier cities is only 17%, 6% and 2% of that in first-tier cities.
The imperfect construction of public charging infrastructure in the sinking market not only restricts the development of new energy vehicles in the sinking market, but also makes consumers hesitate to buy a car.
Although Li Kaiwei has decided to buy new energy vehicles, because the community where he lives was built in the late 1990s, there is no fixed parking space in the community, so he cannot install private charging piles.
”I’m still a little undecided in my mind.” Li Kaiwei admitted that the distribution of public charging piles in the county where he is located is not uniform, and the overall popularity is not high, especially in townships and rural areas, where public charging piles are almost invisible. It’s more frequent, and sometimes I have to travel to multiple places a day. If there is no electricity and there is no place to charge, I may have to call a tow truck.”
Zhang Qian also encountered the same problem. “Not only are there few public charging piles, but also the charging speed is very slow. It takes nearly two hours to charge to 80%. The charging experience is simply crushing.” Fortunately, Zhang Qian purchased a parking space before. It is considering the installation of private charging piles. “In contrast, new energy vehicles do have more advantages than fuel vehicles. If consumers in the sinking market can have private charging piles, I believe that new energy vehicles will become more popular.”
Secondly, new energy vehicles face many after-sales problems in the sinking market.
”The after-sales maintenance of new energy vehicles is a problem that I have neglected before.” Zhang Qian said with a little regret, “The faults of new energy vehicles are mainly concentrated in the three-electric system and the in-vehicle intelligent central control panel, and the daily maintenance cost is relatively high. Fuel vehicles have dropped a lot. However, the after-sales maintenance of new energy vehicles has to go to 4S stores in the city, while before, fuel vehicles only needed to be handled in the auto repair shop in the county, which is still a lot of trouble.”
At this stage, new energy vehicle manufacturers are not only small in size, but also generally at a loss. It is difficult to build a sufficiently dense after-sales network like fuel vehicle manufacturers. In addition, the technology is not disclosed and the parts are lacking, which will eventually lead to new energy vehicles. There are many after-sales problems in the sinking market.
”New energy vehicle manufacturers are actually facing huge risks in laying after-sales networks in the sinking market. If there are fewer local consumers, it will be difficult for after-sales stores to operate, resulting in a waste of financial, human and material resources.” Wang Yinhai explained, ” In other words, the emergency charging, road rescue, equipment maintenance and other services promised by new energy vehicle manufacturers are actually difficult to achieve in sinking markets, especially in rural areas.”
It is undeniable that there are indeed many shortcomings in the sinking process of new energy vehicles that need to be filled, but the sinking market is also an attractive fat. With the popularization of charging infrastructure and the construction of after-sales network, sinking market The consumption potential of new energy vehicles will also be gradually stimulated. For new energy vehicle manufacturers, whoever can first tap the real needs of consumers in the sinking market will be able to take the lead in the wave of new energy vehicles and stand out from the crowd.
Post time: Oct-10-2022