This includes initial vehicle costs, gasoline costs, electricity costs and the cost of replacing EV batteries. Batteries are typically rated for 100,000 miles and 8 years of range, and cars typically last twice that. The owner will then likely purchase a replacement battery over the life of the vehicle, which can be very costly.
Cost per mile for different vehicle classes according to NREL
Readers may have seen reports that EVs cost less than gasoline cars; however, these were usually based on “studies” that “forgot” to include the cost of battery replacement. Professional economists at EIA and NREL are encouraged to avoid personal bias as it reduces accuracy. Their job is to predict what will happen, not what they want to happen.
Swappable batteries reduce the cost of electric vehicles by:
· Most cars drive less than 45 miles per day. Then, on many days, they can use a low-cost, low-range battery (say, 100 miles) and charge it overnight. On longer trips, they could use more expensive, longer-lasting batteries, or replace them more frequently.
· Current EV owners may replace batteries after a 20% to 35% drop in capacity. However, replaceable batteries last longer because they are available as lower capacity batteries when they get older. Drivers won’t see the difference between a new 150 kWh battery and an old 300 kWh battery that’s degraded by 50%. Both will show up as 150 kWh in the system. When batteries last twice as long, batteries cost twice as little.
Fast charging stations at risk of losing money
When you see a fast charging station, what percentage of the time is it in use? In many cases, not much. This is due to the inconvenience and high cost of charging, the ease of charging at home, and the insufficient number of electric vehicles. And low utilization often results in platform costs exceeding platform revenue. When this happens, stations may use government funds or investment funds to cover losses; however, these “remedies” are not sustainable. Power stations are costly due to the high cost of fast charging equipment and the high cost of electrical service. For example, 150 kW of grid power is required to charge a 50 kWh battery in 20 minutes (150 kW × [20 ÷ 60]). That’s the same amount of electricity consumed by 120 homes, and the grid equipment to support this is costly (the average US home consumes 1.2 kW).
For this reason, many fast-charging stations don’t have access to a large number of grids, which means they can’t fast-charge multiple cars at the same time. This leads to the following cascade of events: slower charging, lower customer satisfaction, lower station utilization, higher costs per customer, lower station profits, and ultimately fewer would-be station owners.
A city with many EVs and mostly on-street parking is more likely to make fast charging more economical. Alternatively, fast charging stations in rural or suburban areas are often at risk of losing money.
Swappable batteries reduce the risk to the economic viability of fast charging stations for the following reasons:
· Batteries in underground exchange rooms can be charged more slowly, reducing the service power required and reducing charging equipment costs.
Batteries in the exchange room can draw power at night or when renewable sources are saturated and electricity costs are low.
Rare earth materials are at risk of becoming rarer and more expensive
By 2021, approximately 7 million electric vehicles will be produced worldwide. If production is increased by 12 times and operated for 18 years, electric vehicles can replace 1.5 billion gas vehicles worldwide and decarbonize transportation (7 million × 18 years × 12). However, EVs typically use rare lithium, cobalt and nickel, and it is unclear what would happen to the prices of these materials if consumption increased sharply.
EV battery prices typically fall year over year. However, this did not happen in 2022 due to material shortages. Unfortunately, rare earth materials are likely to become increasingly rare, leading to higher battery prices.
Replaceable batteries reduce the reliance on rare earth materials because they can more easily work with lower-range technologies that use less rare earth materials (for example, LFP batteries do not use cobalt).
Waiting to charge is sometimes inconvenient
Replaceable batteries reduce refueling time because replacements are quick.
Drivers sometimes feel anxious about range and charging
Swapping will be easy if you have many swap chambers and many spare batteries in the system.
CO2 is emitted when burning natural gas to generate electricity
Grids are often powered by multiple sources. For example, at any given time, a city might get 20 percent of its electricity from nuclear power, 3 percent from solar, 7 percent from wind, and 70 percent from natural gas plants. Solar farms generate electricity when the sun is shining, wind farms generate electricity when it is windy, and other sources tend to be less intermittent.
When a person charges an EV, at least one power source on the grid increases the output. Often, only one person is involved due to various considerations, such as cost. Also, the output of a solar farm is unlikely to change since it is set by the sun and its power is usually already consumed. Alternatively, if a solar farm is “saturated” (i.e., throwing away green power because it has too much), then it could increase its output instead of throwing it away. People can charge EVs without emitting CO2 at source.
Replacable batteries reduce CO2 emissions from electricity generation because the batteries can be recharged when renewable energy sources are saturated.
CO2 is emitted when mining rare earth materials and making batteries
Replaceable batteries reduce CO2 emissions in battery production because smaller batteries using less rare earth materials can be used.
Transportation is a $30 Trillion Problem
There are approximately 1.5 billion gas vehicles in the world, and if they were replaced with electric vehicles, each would cost $20,000, for a total cost of $30 trillion (1.5 billion × $20,000). R&D costs would be justified if, for example, they were reduced by 10% through hundreds of billions of dollars of additional R&D. We need to see transportation as a $30 trillion problem and act accordingly—in other words, more R&D. However, how can R&D reduce the cost of replaceable batteries? We could start by exploring machines that automatically install underground infrastructure.
in conclusion
To move replaceable batteries forward, governments or foundations could fund the development of the following standardized systems:
· Electromechanical interchangeable electric vehicle battery system
· Communication system between EV battery and charging mechanism
· Communication system between the car and the battery swap station
· Communication system between power grid and vehicle display panel
· Smartphone user interface and payment system interface
· Swap, storage and charging mechanisms of different sizes
Developing a complete system to the point of prototype can cost tens of millions of dollars; however, global deployment can cost billions of dollars.
Post time: Dec-16-2022