ʻO ka hoʻololi ʻana o ka ʻoihana kaʻa ʻEulopa a me ka pae ʻana o nā hui kaʻa Kina

I kēia makahiki, ma kahi o MG (SAIC)a me Xpeng Motors, ka meaUa kūʻai mua ʻia ma ʻEulopa, ua hoʻohana ʻo NIO a me BYD i ka mākeke ʻEulopa ma ke ʻano he puna nui.Ua maopopo ka loina nui:

●ʻO nā ʻāina nui o ʻEulopa ʻo Kelemānia, Farani, Italia a me nā ʻāina ʻEulopa Komohana he mau kōkua, a e loaʻa i nā ʻāina Nordic nā ʻauhau ʻauhau ma hope o ka pau ʻana o ke kālā. Hiki ke kūʻai ʻia nā hiʻohiʻona like ma ʻEulopa ma mua o Kina, a hiki ke hana ʻia ma Kina a lawe ʻia aku i ʻEulopa ma ke kumukūʻai.

●ʻO nā hiʻohiʻona i hoʻolaha ʻia e nā hui kaʻa ʻEulopa ma Kina, mai BBA a hiki i Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda a me nā kaʻa Farani, ua ʻike i ka pilikia. Ua lohi ka ʻike, ʻoi aku ke kiʻekiʻe o ke kumukūʻai, a aia kahi āpau ma waena o kā mākou hoʻokūkū a me ka involution.

▲Figure 1. Ke kūʻai aku nei i nā hui kaʻa ma ʻEulopa ma 2022

A i kēia manawa, ua haʻi ka Pelekikena ACEA a me BMW CEO Oliver Zipse i kekahi mau manawa: "I mea e hōʻoia ai i ka hoʻi hou ʻana i ka ulu a me ka mākeke nui aʻe i ke kūʻai ʻana i nā kaʻa uila, pono koke ʻo ʻEulopa e hoʻokumu i nā kūlana hoʻolālā kūpono, kahi kaulahao lako ʻEulopa nui aʻe. . ʻO Resilience, ka EU Critical Raw Materials Act e hōʻoia i ka loaʻa ʻana o ka hoʻolālā i nā lako maka e pono ai no nā kaʻa uila, a me ka holo wikiwiki ʻana o ka hoʻouka ʻana. ʻO nā hanana nui i nā makahiki i hala iho nei, e like me Brexit, ka maʻi maʻi coronavirus, nā bottlenecks semiconductor lako a me ke kaua Lūkini-Ukrainian, Ua loaʻa kēia mau hanana i ka hopena i nā kumukūʻai a me ka lako ikehu, a me ka wikiwiki, hohonu a me ka ʻike ʻole i ka honua. hoololi. Pili kēia i kahi ʻano geopolitical, kahi i loaʻa ai ka hopena pololei o nā ʻoihana a me kā lākou mau kaulahao waiwai paʻa.

No ka hoʻopuka maʻalahi, ʻoi aku ka hopena o nā palena hoʻoponopono i ʻEulopa i ka hoʻomohala ʻana o nā ʻoihana kaʻa ʻEulopa. Hoʻohui ʻia me nā kulekele like ʻole, aia ka ʻoihana kaʻa ʻEulopa i kahi manawa nāwaliwali.Ua hoʻoponopono hou ʻo ACEA i kāna wānana mua e hoʻi hou ka mākeke kaʻa kaʻa EU i ka ulu ʻana i 2022, e wānana ana i kahi hoʻopaʻapaʻa hou i kēia makahiki, ma lalo o 1% a 9.6 miliona mau ʻāpana.Hoʻohālikelike ʻia i nā helu 2019, hāʻule nā ​​​​kūʻai kaʻa he 26% i ʻekolu mau makahiki.

▲Kiʻi 2.Kūʻai kaʻa ma ʻEulopa

ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ke komo nā hui kaʻa Kina i ʻEulopa i kēia manawa, ʻaʻole lākou i ʻike i ka nui o kā lākou kālā e loaʻa ai ma ke ʻano o nā pōmaikaʻi waiwai, akā nui nā pilikia ʻāina.Loaʻa iā ʻoe nā piliona, a ʻo nā pilikia geopolitical i lawe ʻia e pono ai ka loiloi pono. Ua like kēia me ke kūlana o nā hui kaʻa Iapana e komo ana i ka mākeke US.ʻO ka mea e hoʻomaopopo ai, ʻo ka pilina ma waena o ka poʻe hana a me ka ʻoihana kaʻa ma ʻEulopa, a me nā pilikia o ka hoʻokele waiwai a me ZZ o ke kumu like.

▲Hei 3.Pili pono nā pilikia hana i Political ma ʻEulopa

Mahele 1

Involution o ka ʻoihana kaʻa ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa

Ke hoʻokūkū nei nā ʻāina hana kaʻa no ka mākeke me ke kua o ka emi ʻana o ka noi honua no nā kaʻa, hoʻonui i ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka hiki.ʻO ka hoʻokūkū holoʻokoʻa mai nā huahana kaʻa a hiki i ka hoʻokūkū mākeke ʻaʻole hiki ke pale ʻia, a maʻalahi ka hoʻokūkū ma ka mākeke kūloko.

▲Hei 4.ʻO ke kūlana o ka hana kaʻa honua

ʻIke mākou i kahi paʻakikī nui loa ma ʻEulopa, kahi āu e ʻike ai ma lalo nei, ua hōʻole ka hana kaʻa ʻEulopa no 4 mau makahiki i ka lālani.

▲Hei 5.Nānā i ka hana kaʻa ʻEulopa

I ka makahiki 2021, e hoʻokuʻu aku ka EU i 5.1 miliona mau kaʻa kaʻa, a aia nā kaʻa kaʻa kaʻa EU ma nā wahi kiʻekiʻe 10 honua.(UK, US, Kina, Tureke, Ukraine, Switzerland, Iapana, South Korea, Norewai a me nā ʻāina Hikina Hikina).

ʻAʻole like me ka manaʻo o kēlā me kēia, ʻo ka nui o nā kaʻa i lawe ʻia mai ʻEulopa a Kina he 410,000 wale nō i ka makahiki.Hiki ke emi i ka makahiki 2022. I ka hopena hope loa, ʻo nā kuleana a me nā pono o ka ʻoihana kaʻa ʻEulopa ma Kina ka mea nui e pili ana i ka hoʻopukapuka kūloko o ka ʻoihana kaʻa Kelemania, a me kekahi mau kaʻa i lawe ʻia mai.

▲Hei 6.Hoʻokuʻu aku i nā hui kaʻa ʻEulopa

E like me ka IHS ikepili, mai Ianuali a hiki i ʻAukake 2022, ke kūʻai aku nei i nā kaʻa kaʻa kaʻa kaʻa hou o ke ao nei i 7,83 miliona mau ʻāpana, a ʻo nā kaʻa kaʻa kaʻa hou o Kina i helu ʻia no 38,6% o ka mākeke; ʻO ʻEulopa ka lua o ka mākeke nui loa, me ka māhele mākeke o 27.2%.Ma waena o lākou, ʻo ke kūʻai aku ʻana o nā kaʻa kaʻa kaʻa uila maʻemaʻe he 5,05 miliona mau ʻāpana, a ʻo nā kaʻa kaʻa uila maʻemaʻe o Kina he 46,2%; ʻO ʻEulopa ka lua o ka mākeke nui loa ma ka honua, me ka māhele mākeke o 21.8%.

Mahele 2

ʻO nā hui kaʻa Kina ma ʻEulopa

ʻIke mākou i ka ikaika o nā hui kaʻa kaʻa hou Kina i ʻEulopa i kēia manawa:

●I ka hapa lua o ka makahiki, ua hoʻolaha ʻo BYD e hui pū me Hedin Mobility, kahi hui kūʻai alakaʻi i ka ʻoihana ʻEulopa, e hoʻolako i nā huahana kaʻa kaʻa hou kiʻekiʻe no nā mākeke Swedish a me Kelemania.

●I ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ʻOkakopa, ua mālama ʻo NIO i ka hanana NIO Berlin 2022 ma Berlin, me ka hoʻolaha kūkala ʻana e hoʻohana i kahi hiʻohiʻona inoa inoa hou e hoʻolako i nā lawelawe ʻōnaehana piha ma Kelemānia, Netherlands, Denmark, a me Suedena, a wehe i ka ET7, EL7 a me. ET5 ʻekolu mau hiʻohiʻona paepae NIO NT2. Hoʻopaʻa.

ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻike mākou i nā māka Kina MG, Chase me Geely's Polestar i kūʻai ʻia ma ʻEulopa.ʻO koʻu hoʻomaopopo ʻana, inā makemake ʻoe e noho i ka mākeke ma ʻEulopa, pehea e komo ai he mea nui loa.

Ua hoʻolaha pū ʻo ʻEulopa i ka EU Battery Regulations, e uhi ana i nā pae āpau o ka pōʻaiapuni o ke ola pākaukau: mai ka hana ʻana a me ka hana ʻana i nā mea pono pākaukau, i ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā huahana pākaukau, i ka hana hou ʻana i nā ʻeke a me ka pau ʻana o ke ola.I ka pane ʻana i nā koi hou i waiho ʻia i loko o nā lula hou, pono nā ʻoihana e hana i nā hana kūpono i ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka huahana, ke kūʻai ʻana i nā mea waiwai a me ka hoʻokele chain chain, a hoʻolālā a hoʻokō i nā hoʻolālā pane manawa lōʻihi.ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo kēia hoʻoponopono pākaukau e lawe mai i nā pilikia he nui i ke kaulahao waiwai pākaukau, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka kaʻa ikehu hou a me nā mea hana pā uila e komo i ka mākeke EU.

▲Figure 7. Nā hoʻoponopono pākaukau ʻEulopa

Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Pelekikena Komisina ʻEulopa ʻo von der Leyen i ka mahina ʻo Kepakemapa e pono ai ka EU e hoʻoikaika i nā pilina me nā ʻāina hilinaʻi a me nā wahi ulu nui, a e hōʻoia i ka hāʻawi ʻana i ka lithium a me nā ʻāina laha ʻole e alakaʻi i ka hoʻololi ʻana i kahi hoʻokele waiwai.E koi ʻo ia no ka hōʻoia ʻana i nā kuʻikahi kālepa me Chile, Mexico a me New Zealand, a e hana e holomua i nā kūkākūkā me nā hoa like me Australia a me India.Pono ka EU e pale i ka hilinaʻi ʻana i ka aila a me ke kinoea i ka hoʻololi ʻana i kahi ʻekekema ʻōmaʻomaʻo, ua kuhikuhi ʻo ia i kēia manawa ke hana nei mākou i ka 90% o nā honua laha a me 60% o ka lithium.Na ke Komisina ʻEulopa e hoʻolauna i nā kānāwai hou, ʻo kaʻEulopa Critical Raw Materials Act, e ʻike i nā papahana hoʻolālā kūpono a kūkulu i nā wahi mālama i nā wahi i pilikia ka lako.E like paha ia me ka IRA ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ka wā e hiki mai ana, pono mākou a pau e kūkākūkā.

▲Hei 8.Ua ʻokoʻa ka honua

Hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo: No kou ʻike, manaʻo wau ua piha ke ala i ka piʻi ʻana o ka ʻoihana i nā kākalaioa a ʻaʻole hiki ke wikiwiki ʻia no kekahi manawa.Pono e ʻike hou aʻe i ka holistic o ka pilikia.