He ʻāpana kēia o ka hōʻike mahina kaʻa a me ka hōʻike mahina pākahi ma Dekemaba. E unuhi wau i kekahi no kāu kuhikuhi.ʻO ka maʻiʻo o kēia lā ka mea nui e hāʻawi iā ʻoe i kekahi mau manaʻo mai ka latitu ʻāina, e nānā i ka helu komo ʻana o nā panalāʻau like ʻole, a kūkākūkā i ka hohonu o ka helu komo ʻana o ka kaʻa ikehu hou o Kina ma ka māhele kumukūʻai a me ke kūlana.
ʻO ka ʻike ma ka papa ma lalo ka nui o ka nui o ka mākeke ma Nowemapa, a me nā helu komo o nā kaʻa ʻaila, HEV, PHEV a me BEV.
▲Figure 1. Ka helu komo ʻana o nā kaʻa kaʻa ma Kina i Nowemapa
Inā mākou e hana i kahi pakuhi o ka huina nui ma ka latitu ʻāina, hiki iā mākou ke nānā i ka helu komo. Hōʻike kēia kiʻi i nā kūʻai kaʻa o Kina i kēia manawa(ka nui o ka pōʻai)a me ka puunaue ana o na ano like ole. Ua pena au i nā kaʻa uila maʻemaʻe i ka ʻōmaʻomaʻo, ua pena ʻia ka plug-in hybrid i ka uliuli, a ʻo ka ʻāpana melemele ke kaʻa ʻaila.
▲Figure 2. Ka paʻa ma ka ʻāina
Mahele 1
Māhele sub-kumukūʻai a me ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana
I mea e hoʻomaopopo maikaʻi ai nā mea a pau i ke kūlana o ke komo ʻana, ua hoʻohana au i kahi palapala wela Cartesian. Ma hope o ka papa inoa ʻana iā BEV a me PHEV, hiki iā ʻoe ke ʻike i kēia mau kiʻi.
●uila maʻemaʻe
Ke hoʻoholo nei mai ka ʻikepili o kēlā me kēia mahina, ʻo kekahi mau panalāʻau waiwai i kēia manawa ka mākeke kumu no Tesla a me nā pūʻali hou, ʻo ia hoʻi me Zhejiang, Guangdong, Acceleration a me Shanghai.I ka manawa like, loaʻa i nā mea kūʻai aku i kēia mau wahi ke koi maopopo no 100,000 a 150,000 yuan. ʻOiaʻiʻo, pili kēia i ke ea holoʻokoʻa kūpono no nā kaʻa uila.
▲Helu 3.Ka mahele ʻana o nā kaʻa uila maʻemaʻe e ka mokuʻāina a me ka māhele kumukūʻai
E pili ana i ke kumukūʻai ke kūlana.Ma hope o ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana i nā hiʻohiʻona like ʻole, hiki iā mākou ke ʻike i ke kūlana o nā hiʻohiʻona e pili ana i nā ʻāpana kumukūʻai like ʻole. ʻAe kēia ʻikepili iā mākou e ʻike maopopo i ke kūlana maoli o nā hiʻohiʻona o kēia manawa.
▲Helu 4.Palapala palapala hoʻohālike o nā kaʻa uila maʻemaʻe
Mai kēia mau helu ʻelua, ʻike ʻia ke kūlana o nā kaʻa uila maʻemaʻe i kēia manawa. ʻO ka noi nui e huli ana i nā SUV nui, nā SUV compact a me nā kaʻa liʻiliʻi A00.Inā mākou e hoʻokaʻawale i nā hiʻohiʻona 10 kiʻekiʻe
▲Helu 5.ʻO nā kaʻa uila maʻemaʻe 10 ma ka ʻāina
●Pākuʻi-i hybrid
No ka mea e hāʻawi ʻia nā papa laikini ma Shanghai i Dekemaba 2022, ke holo wikiwiki nei ka hoʻopuka hou ʻana o nā PHEV i kēia manawa node, a ua like paha ke kūlana ma Guangdong.ʻAʻohe mea i ʻike inā e hoʻomau nā kūlanakauhale i hāʻawi i nā palapala laikini e hāʻawi iā lākou ma hope o ka hoʻomaka ʻana o 2023. He ʻokoʻa ia mai ka mea a mākou i noʻonoʻo ai. I kēia manawa, hāʻawi ʻia nā plug-in hybrids ma kahi ʻano koʻikoʻi, ʻoi aku ka paʻa.
▲Helu 6.Ka hoʻouna mau ʻana o nā plug-in hybrids i 2022
ʻO ka hāʻawi ʻana e like me nā hiʻohiʻona 10 kiʻekiʻe e hiki ke hōʻike i ka pilikia.
▲Helu 7.Ka māhele ʻana o ka plug-in hybrid a me ka laulā lōʻihi
Hiki ke hana ʻia ka ʻimi ʻike e pili ana i ka latitu ʻāina a puni nā kūlanakauhale. Ke hoʻāʻo nei au e ʻike i kekahi mau loli e pili ana i nā hopena ʻike ʻike like ʻole.ʻO ka hui pū ʻana i nā loli i nā mahina like ʻole a me nā manawa like ʻole, hiki iā mākou ke ʻike i kekahi mea.
Mahele 2
ʻāpana pākaukau
●Puka uila mana
ʻO Nowemapa ke kiʻekiʻe o ka hana. Ke hoʻoholo nei i kēia manawa, aia kahi kiʻekiʻe o ka ulu ʻana i ka mahina ʻo Dekemaba, ʻo ia hoʻi kahi kiʻekiʻe pōkole.ʻOiai ʻo Ianuali ka Spring Festival, a he nui nā kānalua, hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia ka nui o kēia manawa i ka Q1 o 2023 i ka wā e hiki mai ana.
I Nowemapa, ua hoʻonui ʻia ka mana o koʻu ʻāina i ka 63.4GWh, ka piʻi ʻana o ka makahiki he 124.6%, a me ka piʻi ʻana o ke kaulahao he 0.9%.Ma waena o lākou, ʻo 24.2GWh ka hoʻopuka ʻana o nā ʻāpana ternary, helu no 38%, hoʻonui i ka makahiki o 133.0%, a me ka emi ʻana o 0.2%.He 39.1GWh ka hoʻopuka ʻana o nā pākahi lithium iron phosphate, ʻo 62% ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka makahiki ma ka makahiki o 119.7%, a me ka piʻi ʻana o ke kaulahao o 1.4%;
Mai Ianuali a Nowemapa, ʻo 489.2GWh ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o nā pihi mana ma koʻu ʻāina, he piʻi kumulative o 160%.Ma waena o lākou, ʻo 190.0GWh ka huina kumulative output o nā ʻāpana ternary, helu no 38.8%, kahi hoʻonui kumulative o 131%.He 298.5GWh ka huina hoonui o na pākahiko lithium iron phosphate, he 61.%, he pi'i kumulative o 183%.
▲Helu 8.ʻIkepili hana pākaukau
●ʻO ka hoʻouka ʻana i ka pā uila
I Nowemapa, ʻo 34.3GWh ka mana hoʻokomo o nā pihi mana i koʻu ʻāina, he 64.5% ka piʻi ʻana o ka makahiki a me ka piʻi ʻana o ke kaulahao o 12.2%.Ma waena o lākou, he 23.1GWh ka mana i hoʻokomo ʻia o nā pākahi lithium iron phosphate, e helu ana no 67.4% o ka nui o ka mana i hoʻokomo ʻia, kahi piʻi o 99.5% i kēlā me kēia makahiki, a me ka piʻi ʻana o ke apo o 17.4%; ʻo 11.0 GWh ka mana i hoʻokomo ʻia o ka nui o ka mana i hoʻokomo ʻia, ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o 19.5% i kēlā me kēia makahiki. He piʻi o 2.0%.I Nowemapa, ʻo 22.6GWh ka nui o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i ka pā uila mana o koʻu ʻāina.He kiʻekiʻe loa kēia helu, aneane like me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka home. ʻO 16.8GWh ka nui o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i nā pā lithium hao phosphate; ʻO 5.7GWh ka nui o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻana o nā ʻanuʻu ternary.
Ma muli o ka iho ʻana i ka makahiki e hiki mai ana, aia kekahi mau kaʻa i kēia makahiki, e uku mua ʻia a laila hoʻoili ʻia, no ka mea e piʻi ana ke kumukūʻai.(e haʻi iā ʻoe e hoʻonui i ke kumukūʻai ma 3000-8000), e ola ana kēia ʻano hana.E loaʻa ana kekahi mau papa helu kaʻa i ka wā e hiki mai ana. Ma muli o nā kumu kumu i ka hopena o 2022, e loaʻa nā mea o ka maʻi i ka ʻikepili ʻikepili.
▲Kii 9. Kaʻano o ka hoʻouka ʻana i ka pā uila
▲Helu 10.Hoʻohana pākaukau
●ʻO ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i ka pā uila a me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka home
Mai Ianuali a Nowemapa, ʻo 258.5GWh ka nui o ka hiki ke hoʻokomo ʻia o nā pihi mana ma koʻu ʻāina, he 101.5% ka piʻi ʻana o kēlā me kēia makahiki.He 159.1GWh ka huina hoonui i hookomoia o ka lithium iron phosphate batteries, no ka 61.5% o ka huina nui i hookomoia, me ka hoonui kumulative o 145.5%; ʻO ka nui o ka nui o ka nui o nā ʻuala i hoʻokomo ʻia he 99.0GWh, ʻo ia ka 38.3% o ka nui o ka mana i hoʻokomo ʻia, me ka piʻi ʻana o 56.5%.
Mai ka hiʻohiʻona o ka nui o ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka pākaukau, ʻo 258.5GWh ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka home, a ʻo ka nui o ka nui o nā hoʻokuʻu ʻana i nā kaʻa a me nā hoʻoiho pololei ʻana he aneane 160GWh. Hōʻike maoli kēia kiʻi i ka hoʻokūkū o ka ʻoihana uila mana o Kina.ʻO kēia ka mea e hōʻoiaʻiʻo nei inā ʻaʻole hoʻokō ʻo ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika i ke kulekele kumu, a laila e ʻike ʻia kā lākou ʻoihana kaʻa uila maʻemaʻe e pili ana i ka hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻana o nā pākahi mai Kina.(Nā kaʻa ʻEulopa a me ʻAmelika + kumu Kina).
Ma ka noʻonoʻo pono ʻana, paʻakikī kēia kūlana.
▲Helu 11.Ka nānā 'ana i nā pila
Ka hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo: Mai koʻu manaʻo pilikino, ʻo ke koi no ka ʻikepili Q1 ma 2023 e pōʻeleʻele loa ma muli o nā kumu pilikanaka.Hoʻohui ʻia me nā hoʻoponopono artificial, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka ʻokoʻa ma waena o ke kaulahao a me ka ratio makahiki-ma-makahiki, ʻo ia ka mea e manaʻo ʻia.Aia ke kūlana kiʻekiʻe e lilo ʻo 2023 i unilateral, a e hoʻomaka ia e hoʻōla mai ka Q2 me ka hoʻi ʻana mai o ka waiwai waiwai o Kina-ʻo ia ke ʻano o kaʻu hoʻoholo.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Dec-14-2022